Seminar, November 17

Robin Lumsdaine will be presenting her work: "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Breakeven Inflation Rates."

The seminar is in Kreeger 101 and runs 12PM-1:15PM.

An abstract of the research:

This paper explores the role of oil prices in the inflation-linked bond markets. Early proponents of inflation-linked bonds highlighted their role in protecting against future inflation, portfolio diversification, asset-liability matching, and use as a commitment tool for monetary policy in keeping inflation contained. From an investment perspective, real return assets should be attractive in prolonged periods of high inflation and unattractive in periods of low inflation resulting in increased demand for real return assets as inflation expectations grow and decreased demand as such expectations diminish. The late 1990s and early 2000s saw an expansion in the inflation-linked bond markets, with more sovereign issuers, increased issuance size and a wider range of maturities; this tremendous growth in turn fueled greater interest and participation in these markets. After a prolonged period of low and stable inflation, the rise in oil prices that began in 2003/4 coincided with the rapid expansion of the inflation-linked bond markets and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. In addition, the widening of the yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds, or "breakeven", during this time was seen as an indication that inflation expectations were on the rise. Much of the runup in breakevens was attributed to the observed increases in oil prices. Yet despite similar trends, over most of the sample period, breakevens and oil have not moved one-for-one. Recently, however, the decline in oil prices has coincided with a dramatic decline in breakevens and unprecedented Fed easing. The results demonstrate that the coincidence of breakeven and oil price fluctuations is a relatively recent phenomenon, unique to the US market, and mainly associated with the front end of the breakeven curve.

Seminar, Wednesday November 3

This Wednesday Jennifer Poole (UC Santa Cruz) is presenting her work, "Trade Liberalization, Firm Heterogeneity, and Wages: New Evidence from Matched Employer–Employee Data."

The seminar is 12PM-1:15PM in Kreeger 101.

Abstract:

In this paper, we use a linked employer–employee database from Brazil to examine the heterogeneous responses of exporters and non-­exporters to trade reform. We begin our analysis at the firm level and estimate how average wages respond to trade liberalization and test whether these responses vary by the firm’s export status. We find that wages at exporting firms increase relative to non-­‐exporters in response to a decline in protection and that the differential impact is mainly due to exporters in sectors in which Brazil has the comparative advantage. We then decompose firm-level average wages into a component reflecting the firm’s workforce composition and a component reflecting the firm’s performance. Our decomposition suggests the relative increase in wages is largely due to the portion of wages that can be attributed to the relative performance improvement at exporters post-­‐liberalization; differential changes in unobservable workforce composition play a minor role in explaining the differential response to liberalization by firms with differing trade orientation. Our worker-level analysis, where we test for the differential impacts of trade liberalization on otherwise identical workers employed in heterogeneous firms, is supportive of this finding.

IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

The IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference will be on November 4-5, 2010, at the IMF headquarters in Washington, D.C. The theme of this year's conference is "Macroeconomic and Financial Policies after the Crisis." This year will mark the 11th anniversary of the conference with an outstanding list of presenters and discussants in the program. Anil Kashyap will deliver the Mundell-Fleming lecture on "The Macroprudential Toolkit." The conference will conclude with a policy panel on "Macro-Prudential Regulation" chaired by José Viñals and featuring discussions by Viral Acharya, Markus Brunnermeier, Donald Kohn, and Vincent Reinhart.

The link below will take you to the conference web page -- as the conference papers are received, they will be made available here.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2010/arc/index.htm

The conference is intended to provide a forum for discussing innovative research in economics, undertaken both by IMF staff and by outside economists, and to facilitate the exchange of views among researchers and policymakers. If you plan to attend the conference, please register online using the attached link (registration will include all conference sessions, the Mundell-Fleming Lecture, and the Economic Forum). The deadline for registration is Friday, October 29, 2010. Registered attendees will be required to present photo identification on entering the IMF at the Visitor Center entrance at 700 19th Street, N.W. Washington D.C.
Look forward to seeing you at the conference.

Department Seminar, Wednesday October 27

This Wednesday, Petra Todd (UPenn) will be presenting her work, "Structural Estimation and Policy Evaluation in Developing Countries."

The seminar will be in Kreeger 101, from 12PM-1:15PM. The seminar is a joint department and Info-Metrics Institute affair.

An abstract of the work:

This paper discusses the use of discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) methods for evaluating policies of particular relevance to developing countries, such as policies to reduce child labor and increase school attendance, to improve school quality, to affect immigration flows, to expand old age pension benefits, or to foster small business investment through microfinance. We describe the DCDP framework and how it relates to static models, illustrate its application with an example related to conditional cash transfer programs, consider numerous empirical applications from the literature of how the DCDP methodology has been used
to address substantively important policy issues, and discuss methods for model validation.

Census Bureau Research Data Center Research Conference

Registration is now open for the Census Bureau's Research Data Center Research Conference, which will be held at the University of Maryland Inn and Conference Center on Thursday, November 18. There is no registration fee for the conference; however, register soon since we are capping registration at 175.

More information is available on the Maryland Population Research Center website.

http://www.popcenter.umd.edu/research/sponsored-events/crdc-2010

Registration

Don't forget--registration for MA students opens Friday, October 22. Feel free to contact me with questions about courses and to get approval for registration.

January 2011 Comprehensive Exams

Please note the following dates and procedures for January 2011 comprehensive exams:

Applications Due: Friday, November 19th, 2010
You must apply by this date and pay the fee in order to be guaranteed an exam in January. Late applications will not be accepted (especially if you are the only one taking a particular test). Please note that this is the Friday before the week when Thanksgiving break falls.

Exams Given: between Thrusday, January 6th and Friday, January 7th, 2011 (exact dates of each exam to be determined).
You must be in the exam room (location TBD) no later than 10:00 am on the day of your exam. You will have until 2:30 pm to complete your exams. (Going over the time limit is not allowed.) Anyone requesting special accommodations for a learning disability MUST make the request through Academic Support Services (but also register with the department).

If you have not done so already, please contact your advisor to see if you are ready to take an exam. If you determine that you are, please fill out an application and submit it to the department office and Registrar as soon as possible. Here is a link to the application:


http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/pdf/upload/Application-for-Comp-Exams-Form.pdf

and here is the link to past examinations.

http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/past-exams.cfm